World of Warcraf Guide: Hit Rating, Spell Hit, and Expertise

by Kittikat - Burning Blade Server

Posted on the Official Warcraft Guide Forum: 03-04-2008

Hey all! I know with the introduction of Expertise with the last patch, many of us are wondering exactly how it benefits us, if at all. While I was piecing things together, I figured why not go all out and include the always asked Hit Rating stats as well. Soooo..here we go!

This thread covers pretty much everything you need to know about Hit Rating, Spell Hit, and Expertise across all the classes and how certain talents affect them.

Tag it if you like, copy/paste it into your own forums, and if you think it's worthy enough, report it as a sticky.

Also, even though I think it's pretty much done, if you know of any changes or if I put something down incorrectly, please let me know so I can keep this updated and current as much as possible.

Note: These charts are derived from Elitest Jerks and WoWWiki models. You can find them here:

http://elitistjerks.com/f31/t18865-working_theories_theorycrafting_2_3_a/

http://www.wowwiki.com/Formulas:Weapon_Skill#Chance_to_Hit

When you are fighting, you often might see in your combat log that you missed an attack. This can happen with just your normal (white) attacks or with your special (yellow) attacks.

Obviously you want to miss as little as possible or not miss at all, because a missed attack is an attack that didn't deal any damage at all.

Some information about +Hit and Expertise:

 

• Any player or mob has a 5% base chance to miss.
• Any mob has a 5% base chance each to dodge, parry and block.
• A player hitting another player, or a mob hitting a player, only gets 0.04% miss chance per point difference.
• +hit is the only way to reduce miss chances.
  Agility and Intelligence do NOT help to-hit.
• Expertise is the only way to reduce parry and dodge chances.
• Miss and Dodge chance can all be dropped to 0% (unless you're a caster, then miss chance can only drop to 1%). Theoretically speaking, Parry can be dropped to 0% as well, but at a much higher cost to Expertise.
   

Applying these formulas gives the following base miss rate against the appropriate mob level:
 

• v. Level 70 mob: 5.0%
• v. Level 71 mob: 5.5%
• v. Level 72 mob: 6.0%
• v. Level 73 mob: 9.0%

Also, in applying these miss rate formulas, fractional Skill levels are dropped, not rounded. So, say you have are a Level 70 character, and you equip a piece of gear that gives +15 Expertise Rating. In theory, this equates to 3.8 +Expertise. And, in theory, Blizzard could have used the fractional .8 in its subsequent calculations of hit and miss, or, perhaps, rounded it to 4.0. But it doesn’t work that way. Instead, the fractional .8 Expertise is simply dropped altogether. You get 3 Expertise for purposes of all Parry and Dodge calculations.

+Hit Caps for Bosses

Hit rating, expertise rating, and spell hit rating are one of the best ways to increase DPS against raid bosses. As raid bosses are considered level 73, you have a much higher chance of your attacks missing than normal. Additionally, hit rating tends to be a "cheap" stat when gear is itemized, meaning that an equivalent amount of hit rating usually does more for your DPS than the same amount of critical hit rating.

However, eventually you have enough hit rating to never miss the boss, and accumulating more hit rating is unnecessary. This is usually referred to as hitting the "hit rating cap".

I have split the following three posts into:

Melee Hit Rating

Spell Hit Rating and

Expertise Rating

Melee Hit Rating

Base Melee Miss (Dual-Wielding): 28%
Base Melee Miss (2H/1H+Shield/Special Attacks): 9%
Base Ranged Miss: 9%
Hit % = hit rating / 15.8

For example, as a Druid, my weapons (claws, paws, whatever) are considered Two-Handed. Therefore, I need to get 9% worth of hit rating, which is equal to 9 * 15.8 = 142 hit rating, in order to never miss the boss. Hit rating beyond 142 is not useful. After hitting 142 hit rating, I should concentrate on other stats that will boost my attack power and critical hit rating to increase my DPS.

For dual-wielding, the 28% miss chance applies to both Main-Hand and Off-Hand weapons. However, special attacks, such as Backstab, only have a 9% miss rate (142 Hit Rating). For most classes though, regular melee damage is a significant portion of your total DPS.

Unlike spells, when you reach your hit rating cap, your attacks will never miss. Melee attacks can still be dodged or parried. Melee attacks can only be parried if you are in front of the mob.

The following is the amount of hit rating you need to minimize misses for raid boss fights, depending on your class and talents.

Druid (Melee)

Base: 142

Rogue (Dual-Wield)

Base: 442
w/ Precision: 363

Rogue (Special Attacks)

Base: 142
w/ Precision: 63

Hunter

Base: 142
w/ Surefooted: 95

Shaman (Dual-wield)

Base: 442
w/ Dual Wield Specialization: 348
w/ Nature's Guidance: 395
w/ Dual Wield Specialization + Nature's Guidance: 300

Shaman (Two-Handed/One-Hand + Shield/Special Attacks)

Base: 142
w/ Nature's Guidance: 95

Warrior (Dual-wield)

Base: 442
w/ Precision: 395

Warrior (Two-Handed/One-Hand + Shield/Special Attacks)

Base: 142
w/ Precision: 95

Paladin (Melee)

Base: 142
w/ Precision: 95

Other Factors

Hunter/Paladin/Warrior Draenai Aura: -15.8 hit rating needed
Druid Improved Faerie Fire (Balance): -47 hit rating needed

Spell Hit Rating

Base Spell Miss: 16%
Spell Hit % = spell hit rating / 12.6

Spells actually have a 17% chance to miss against bosses, but you cannot eliminate that last 1%, so the effective cap is 16%.

Spell chance to miss against Same Level PVP is 3%.

The following is the amount of spell hit rating you need to minimize misses for raid boss fights, depending on your class and talents.

Mage

Base: 202
w/ Elemental Precision (Fire/Frost): 164
w/ Arcane Focus (Arcane): 76

Warlock

Base: 202
w/ Suppression (Affliction): 76

Note that a warlock might still want extra spell hit rating for Shadowbolt and Soulshatter, in which case Suppression becomes redundant.

Priest

Base: 202
w/ Shadow Focus (Shadow): 76
w/ Focused Power (Smite, Mind Blast, Mass Dispel): 152
w/ Shadow Focus + Focused Power (Mind Blast): 26

Druid (Spell)

Base: 202
w/ Balance of Power: 152

Shaman (Spell)

Base: 202
w/ Elemental Precision: 126
w/ Nature's Guidance: 164
w/ Elemental Precision + Nature's Guidance: 88

Paladin (Spell)

Base: 202
w/ Precision: 164

Other Factors

Mage/Priest/Shaman Draenai Aura: -12.6 spell hit rating needed
Shaman Totem of Wrath: -38 spell hit rating needed

Expertise Rating

Tanking

Expertise is highly desired in tanking because it helps to prevent special attacks from being dodged or parried. For example, at 20 expertise (or 79 expertise rating at level 70), you will reduce the chance that an equal level mob can dodge or parry your attacks by 5%, This allows about 10% more of your swings to hit, increasing your threat generation.

More importantly, expertise also works as a mitigation stat, since when an enemy parries he gains a 40% attack speed increase towards his next swing (making it almost an instant double-hit). Therefore, reducing enemy parries is an important way of reducing incoming overall damage as well as burst damage. Boss parries coupled with boss special attacks are particularly deadly combinations, and have a nefarious history of wiping many appropriately-geared raids.

Note that warriors can gain 2/4/6 points of expertise (that's actual expertise, not expertise rating) by picking up the Defiance talent in the third tier of the Protection tree.

Paladins can get 1-5 points of expertise from Combat Expertise, in the sixth tier of the Protection tree.

DPS

Melee DPS also benefit from expertise. With the proper amount of expertise, as long as you're behind your opponent, your attacks will NEVER miss (with Max Hit Rating and Max Expertise rating, your attacks won't "Miss" or be "Dodged")

Weapon Skill

Expertise replaces weapon skill and is not limited to a particular type of weapon. i.e. there is not a separate expertise rating for axes and two-handed swords; the same table applies to both equally.

Expertise against Bosses

Since a boss-mob is calculated as level 73 mob its dodge is increased by 3*0.2% = 0.6% up to 5.6%. To negate 5.6% dodge, 22.4 (round this UP to 23) points of expertise or 91 points of expertise rating are needed.

Parry rates are unknown at this time but are estimated to be higher (between 10-15% or ~40-69 expertise/~160-273 expertise rating) and are probably variable from one boss to the next.

++++Expertise rounds down. Partial amounts of Expertise do nothing.++++

Base Melee Parry & Dodge: 5.6%
1 Expertise = expertise rating / 3.95
1 Expertise = -0.25% Dodge and -0.25% Parry

When you reach 91 expertise rating, your attacks will never be dodged. Melee attacks can still miss. If you reach both your hit rating cap and 91 expertise, your melee attacks will never miss or be dodged.

The following is the amount of expertise rating you need to minimize dodges for raid boss fights, depending on your class and talents.

Druid (Melee)

Base: 91

Rogue

Base: 91
w/ Weapon Expertise: 52

Shaman (Melee)

Base: 91

Warrior

Base: 91
w/ Defiance: 68
w/ Weapon Mastery: 76
w/ Defiance + Weapon Mastery: 52

Paladin (Melee)

Base: 91
w/ Combat Expertise: 72

F.A.Q.

• Mage
  
  EP currently grants 6% to Frost (which lowers Frost cap to 127) and 3% to Fire. It is a known bug that Blizzard hasn't said much about, the only comment they've made was Hortus saying it had been reported already.

• Warrior
  Humans get 5 Expertise Skill (19 Expertise Rating: 1.25% Dodge/Parry Reduction) when wielding a sword or mace. They currently get 10 Expertise Skill (39 Expertise Rating: 2.50% Dodge/Parry reduction) if dual wielding a sword and a mace (imagine that will get changed at some point)
  
  Orcs get 5 Expertise Skill (19 Expertise Rating: 1.25% Dodge/Parry Reduction) when wielding an axe.
   

The game uses a two-roll system, and it's been proven time and time again. First roll to see if you hit, second to see if you crit:

HERE IS HOW MISS/HIT/CRIT WORKS

Whenever an attack is made (both white damage and specials), the following can happen:
MISS
HIT
CRIT


The above all have a chance to happen, based on your and your target's stats.
Base miss rate against an equal leveled target is 5%.
Against a mob 3 levels higher than you (which is what a boss is considered to be), your miss rate is 9%.

With ranged attacks, there is no 1% chance to miss that cannot be negated. This is a rumor, and is incorrect. Spells always have a 1% chance to be resisted, melee/ranged attacks do not.


For the following, I'll assume a boss target, with no +Hit, and 20% listed Crit rate.

First, a roll is done to check whether or not your attack lands on the target.
The chance to miss is 9%, thus we have a 91% chance to Hit our target.

Next, a roll is done to check whether or not the attack crits or hits normally.
Out of the 91% attacks hitting our target, 20% of those will be crits.
20% of 91 is 18.2%.

So, the end result in this case is:
MISS: 9%
HIT: 72.8%
CRIT: 18.2%


Adding Crit increases our crit rate, by turning hits into crit.
Adding Hit increases both our hit rate and our crit rate (until hit capped against the target) by reducing misses. This is due to misses being turned into hit, which on the second roll can be turned into crits.

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